GENERAL NEWS
THE RBA has held the cash rate 4.35% in its final meeting of 2023, after weaker results across several metrics throughout November...
The cash rate will now be paused at its highest rate since December 2011 for two months, with the RBA not meeting again until February and just eight meetings scheduled for 2024...
At last month’s meeting, RBA brought interest rates up 25 basis points to 4.35% after pausing for four months...
According to CoreLogic, November saw retail trade drop 0.2% month-on-month and the unemployment rate increase by 20 basis points to 3.7% in October...
Roy Morgan Business Confidence also fell 4.6 points to 85.8 over November, this marks ten consecutive months that Business Confidence has sat below the neutral level of 100...
64% of Australian businesses are now worried about the performance of the economy and are expecting “bad times” over the coming year, with 61% expecting...
“Today’s decision will see the cash rate paused for at least two months, which will certainly help bolster business and consumer confidence in the vital Christmas and Boxing Day...
“At a time of immense financial pressure and hardship for most– avoiding another cash rate increase will have a positive impact on spending and retail preparations...
“Retailers have been waiting all year for the big pay out that comes from pre/post-Christmas sales, but the interest rate rise in November was a heavy blow to consumer confidence,”...
“Retailers brought their Black Friday and Cyber Monday bargains forward by three weeks in anticipation that last month’s interest rate hike would affect...
“We have predicted $63 billion in retail spend by the end of Christmas, and while that number looks big, it will be flat earnings for the sector compared to last year.”...
Over November, the monthly CPI measure also declined, though this may have had minimal impact on the RBA’s decision this month...
“That’s because October CPI was impacted by various subsidies, including the increase to the Commonwealth Rental Assistance, and excluded some services...
“Offsetting the weaker data flows was a surprisingly strong month of housing lending in October, up 5.4% month-on-month. The uplift in lending may be short lived however...
ANZ is forecasting the cash rate will remain at 4.35% for “some time” before a modest easing cycle begins at the end of 2024. Though the bank is not ruling out further tightening by...
Meanwhile, AMP is calling the risk of another rate hike in February “high” at around 40%, with the RBA to have the December quarter inflation data and two more rounds of...
“Yet continuing to raise interest rates will only add to the already very high risk of recession, particularly given the uncertainty around the long and variable lags with...
“As a result, the economy is likely to slow further into next year which along with supply chain improvements is likely to push headline inflation down to...