Boom or Bust? Which housing markets will perform in 2023?

Scenario 1 RATES ON HOLD (Base case)

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– Interest rates peak at no higher than 4% – Inflation peaks at 8% and falls to back to 5% – Unemployment rises but stays below 5%

[{"selector":"#anim-8de6915a-22c0-4491-a5ca-1b588d57aca2 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

CAPITAL CITY AVERAGE (weighted)

[{"selector":"#anim-4b3e7335-653c-43a5-8fd3-5b6d5379ad9b [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

[{"selector":"#anim-4bcadd64-dea5-4c80-a772-4f7424b25fe8 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

[{"selector":"#anim-68dad263-1ac1-46d8-a2f1-561053289434 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Scenario 2 GOLDILOCKS

[{"selector":"#anim-87f64c57-7682-452f-96b9-312145872656 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

[{"selector":"#anim-5924ed64-1da2-4bbc-9398-d49d8158f1d2 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] – Interest rates peak at no higher than 4%. Then rate cuts 2nd half of 2023. – Inflation peaks at 8% and falls to back to 5% – Unemployment rises but stays below 5% Read more

CAPITAL CITY AVERAGE (weighted)

[{"selector":"#anim-317c91bc-0d80-4749-8cda-465d6086a836 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

[{"selector":"#anim-e3324ebf-52f5-4e94-a53c-ef86206dc7c8 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

[{"selector":"#anim-72a6506d-80e7-4a7a-89e6-97febd18e410 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

“No doubt it will be a very challenging year for the RBA to walk their tight-rope and pull off a soft landing for the Australian economy. However, contrary to current popular opinion, I believe they will manage to do just that,”

[{"selector":"#anim-d0fdb764-b79b-4230-be9c-fd24a6b51da6","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-140%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c2b63cd6-62f4-4c9a-9b61-0dc8be4b9492","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-85bc8d97-1679-49ed-b080-d1d7cc70a095","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-35c49a87-974c-41a4-bc63-972da3baa9c5","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-123.80952%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-30cc6795-8d8e-41c6-8aeb-2120f3f10b4e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c89dbbba-aefa-475f-81ca-c52ac3750c58","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] Christopher, managing director of SQM Research Read more

Scenario 3 FALSE DAWN

[{"selector":"#anim-11e90203-bf84-4545-b8cc-cb0d3833e6f3 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

[{"selector":"#anim-efc28efd-4e38-4dd8-b00c-d1325361c472 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] – The cash rate pauses between 3.1% to 3.8% Then rise to above 5% 2nd half of year – Inflation peaks at 8%. Falls briefly, then accelerates towards 10%. – Unemployment stays below 5% Read more

CAPITAL CITY AVERAGE (weighted)

[{"selector":"#anim-44a34fe1-185c-4a55-890e-07ff63bfaee9 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

[{"selector":"#anim-8d6c9b8b-3da5-4b12-b0be-efd3e895540f [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

[{"selector":"#anim-c0ca4e8f-28d9-404d-87bb-97e314048141 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Scenario 4 RECESSIONARY INFLATION

[{"selector":"#anim-d52e6134-7871-4647-96a3-0eb028b0a1d5 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

– Stubborn inflation stays above 7% – Interest rates continue to rise to above 4% – Unemployment rises to over 6%

[{"selector":"#anim-bd585d44-cffa-4b89-932f-729a0ebd721f [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

[{"selector":"#anim-faf4b58f-0e10-4cd9-b2c7-d756a7ef039e [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

[{"selector":"#anim-098cdefc-cab1-43a9-8020-2ad9c76a110c [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(3.5527136788005e-15%, 2.528317205966838e-7%) scale(0.8333333333333334)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Read more

[{"selector":"#anim-9765b13e-6c78-411b-8c42-305649321e91","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-201a8faa-3f65-4def-b4b0-0e58b609eea7","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(144.77613%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-83fcb219-94ab-4119-9942-9563b534ec98","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8fc28716-288a-487f-b777-bf38f94fc8b2","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(144.77613%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ce298b22-d0d0-46d8-905f-b13c1789c7dd","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a0dbd565-0574-42f0-904c-974bbcc62836","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-144.77613%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-009ba4e3-ebcd-4a88-a2cd-770e9747df39","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -629.81068%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -177.10276321600003%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -60.20990100800001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.610203412000004%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -9.825046608000001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":1600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-767db0fc-f152-4099-ac9b-b2f97a9aee00","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d81cfe4c-5d36-455a-819f-3be9778a06cd","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-145.86468%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Our Website

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Boom or Bust? Which housing markets will perform in 2023?

Scenario 1 RATES ON HOLD (Base case)

– Interest rates peak at no higher than 4% – Inflation peaks at 8% and falls to back to 5% – Unemployment rises but stays below 5%

CAPITAL CITY AVERAGE (weighted)

+3% to +7%

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

+4% to +8% 1% to +5% -5% to 0% +1% to +5%

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

+5% to +9% 0% to +5% -1% to +3% -3% to +2%

Scenario 2 GOLDILOCKS

CAPITAL CITY AVERAGE (weighted)

+5% to +9%

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

+9% to +13% +3% to +7% -4% to +1% +2% to +6%

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

+8% to +12% +1% to +4% +0% to +4% -3% to +2%

“No doubt it will be a very challenging year for the RBA to walk their tight-rope and pull off a soft landing for the Australian economy. However, contrary to current popular opinion, I believe they will manage to do just that,”

Scenario 3 FALSE DAWN

CAPITAL CITY AVERAGE (weighted)

0% to +4%

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

+8% to +12% +1% to +5% -4% to +1% -4% to +1%

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

0% to +4% -2% to +3% -3% to +2% -4% to +1%

Scenario 4 RECESSIONARY INFLATION

– Stubborn inflation stays above 7% – Interest rates continue to rise to above 4% – Unemployment rises to over 6%

Perth Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

+2% to +6% -7% to -12% -6% to -13% -5% to -9%

Sydney Adelaide Hobart Canberra

-3% to -8% -2% to +2% -5% to -10% -4% to -9%

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